Korea Diplomacy has Collapsed

Biden met with Xi shortly after the Pentagon ratcheted up its own rhetoric, using much of the same apocalyptic language that Donald Trump deployed in 2017 to scare off Kim Jong Un. Any North Korean nuclear attack would “result in the end of the Kim regime,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declared in meeting with his South Korean counterpart on November 2nd. His language was lifted from the Pentagon’s new Defense Policy Review, which included this gem on the DPRK. “Any nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its Allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime. There is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive.”

Meanwhile, with a new conservative leader in South Korea and Japan’s LDP as powerful and militaristic as ever, Biden and the Pentagon have moved to solidify and deepen the trilateral U.S., South Korean, and Japanese military alliance. As they well know, North Korea sees that alliance with Korea’s former colonizer as a strategic threat, and has focused most of its record number of missile tests on the U.S. bases in South Korea, Japan, Okinawa, and Guam. The intensification of this trilateral relationship is also a cause of concern in South Korea, where the rightist President Yoon Suk-yeol is highly unpopular just months after taking office.

According to the Hankyoreh newspaper, the growing closeness between Tokyo and Seoul is proof to some Koreans that President Yoon Suk-yeol has “ditched balanced diplomacy for the US bandwagon. “In opting for bloc diplomacy, Yoon puts [the] Korean Peninsula peace at stake,” the newspaper, a progressive bastion since the late 1980s, declared in a front-page analysis.

During the recent U.S.-South Korean military drills (called “Vigilant Storm”), the DPRK upped its rhetoric, too, saying it would take “sustained, resolute and overwhelming” military measures in response. That prompted a quick answer response from Washington and Seoul: in what sounded like a revival of the 1950s-era theory of mutually assured destruction, Biden and Yoon vowed to respond “with overwhelming force” if the North ever uses nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, Biden’s intelligence officials, led by his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, claim nearly every day that North Korea’s seventh nuclear test is “imminent” – a prediction that the press has dutifully echoed since it was first made on May 5th during Biden’s first meeting in South Korea with President Yoon.

Yet, as I point out every day on this site, it’s been 773 days (as of November 18th) since the United States and North Korea met for negotiations. Despite all the stern warnings from both sides, there has not been a single meeting between the US and DPRK governments since the Trump-Kim talks collapsed in March 2019.

This is a calamity: as the Washington-based Arms Control Association points out in this chronology of US-DPRK relations from December 1985 to April 2022, diplomacy has led to some important breakthroughs in the past – most notably the 1994 “Agreed Framework” negotiated by the Clinton administration and the 2018 “Singapore Declaration” signed by Trump and Kim Jong Un.

That’s also what I conclude from my own timeline, presented below. In my opinion, Biden has no choice but to try the path of negotiation and seek to make the peace. If Trump could make headway in settling this decades-long dispute, so could this president. But Biden’s Cold War instincts are deeply engrained, and I don’t see much chance of a change under his leadership.

Obama’s Militaristic Tilt in Korea

At ceremonies held around the sixtieth anniversary of the Korean armistice, the president sounded bellicose notes, calling the Korean War a “victory” – a first for an American leader.

Washington’s Plans for Asia Just Hit a Roadblock—Trump (December 13, 2016) The president-elect could easily unravel decades of carefully laid plans for an American-dominated Pacific.

In South Korea, War Hysteria Is Seen as an American Problem (April 17, 2017) The big issue in Gwangju is the May 9 presidential election, which is expected to bring a progressive to power.

The United States Should Listen to South Korea—or It Will Reap the Whirlwind (May 5, 2017) Recent US actions underscore a deep-seated problem: refusal to see South Korea as an independent nation with interests of its own.

South Korea’s New President Says His Election Completes the ‘Candlelight Revolution’ (May 10, 2017) In an exclusive interview, Moon Jae-in scoffs at reports of a rift with Trump and talks about his country’s past struggles for democracy.

Is Trump Going to War in Korea? (August 11, 2017) His cowboy tirades, and the pundits’ bombastic rhetoric, are exceedingly reckless. History shows that negotiations with Pyongyang can work.

The Only Sensible Way Out of the North Korea Crisis (August 23, 2017) In a dual freeze, Pyongyang would cease missile tests in exchange for a moratorium on Washington’s massive war games.

Amid the Clamor for War in Korea, Here Are Two Voices for Peace (December 12, 2017) A former Pentagon chief and a “dialogue practitioner” push for engagement.

Pence and Abe Rain on South Korea’s Olympics Parade (February 14, 2018)

But the pressure could backfire, a former Japanese prime minister tells The Nation.

President Moon’s Gamble for Peace With North Korea Has Paid Off (March 22, 2018) But the diplomatic process will be managed by US and Korean spy agencies.

Historic Summit Sets the Table for Peace—and US Pundits React With Horror (May 26, 2018) They were spinning the meeting, and Kim Jong-un’s outreach in particular, as a dangerous event.

Trump Meets Kim, Averting Threat of Nuclear War—and US Pundits Are Furious (June 13, 2018)

The media response, from both liberals and conservatives, betrays a cynical disregard for South Korea.

Moon and Kim Stage an Exuberant Summit in Pyongyang (September 20, 2018 Bold proposals on demilitarization break the logjam with Washington.

UNC-brokered agreement with the Koreas bodes well for the peace process (October 27, 2018)

My interview with The Real News

The Trump-Kim Talks Ended Abruptly—but Negotiations Will Continue (February 28, 2019) There was no historic agreement, but even the hawk Mike Pompeo admitted the two sides made “real progress.” But I was dead wrong about the talks continuing. This was it, and it’s been downhill ever since.

And Behold, A White Horse (timshorrock.com, October 17, 2019)

That line from Johnny Cash was all I could think of when these photos were posted on social media today.

A Low-Intensity War Is Underway in Northeast Asia (December 23, 2019)

Beneath the radar in Korea, a military buildup—by both sides—has raised tensions to an alarming degree.

Biden Is Adopting a Militaristic Approach to the Far East (February 15, 2021) Appointees from the hawkish think-tank world indicate the potential for renewed tensions